SCC Preview: Hamlin has it

Bristol Motor Speedway has always been a track where one should expect the unexpected, and that shouldn't change for Saturday's sold-out Sharpie 500.

When one studies the statistic that shows the drivers who have earned the most points this season on the short tracks, one would immediately pick Denny Hamlin as the favorite in Saturday night's Sharpie 500. After all, in three short-track events this year, Hamlin has led 451 laps and earned 486 points. Yet, when it comes to Bristol, Hamlin has yet to find victory lane. In the past three Bristol races, Hamlin has produced a second in the spring, a third last August and a sixth in March 2008. Not to mention the spring race in 2007 when Hamlin led 177 laps but had to settle for a 14th. His performance in the circuit's three short-track races earlier this year was pretty strong with seconds at Bristol and Martinsville, but a 14th at Richmond. So is Hamlin, who's fifth in the standings with one victory, seven top-5s and 11 top-10s in 23 races, due a victory at Bristol?

One could ask the same question about Ryan Newman, who always performs well at the storied Tennessee track but has yet to visit its victory lane in NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series. He has top-10s in three of the past four Bristol events with his best being a sixth last August. He's also produced a top-10 in every short-track event this year with his best being a fourth at Richmond. Newman secured a seventh in the spring Bristol race and a sixth at Martinsville. Overall this season, the standings' ninth-place driver has earned 466 of his points on short tracks. That's fourth best on the short-track competition profile. He also possesses the track's qualifying record and the distinction of being the youngest pole winner at the facility, having accomplished the feat at 25 years, 3 months and 15 days.

Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon are two other Sprint Cup drivers who have enjoyed dominating and successful Bristol performances. Busch has demolished his competition in the past two Bristol races, leading a total of 793 laps. However, he turned only one of those dominating performances into a victory. Earlier this year, he led 378 of 500 laps en route to a victory. However, last August, after leading 415 of 500 laps, he had to settle for second behind Carl Edwards, who has won two of the past four Bristol events. This year, Busch has won two of the three short-track races. In addition to Bristol, he won Richmond's May race. In the points department, Busch has earned 476 on the short tracks, second only to Hamlin. Yet when it comes to the driver standings, Busch is 15th, 70 points away from making the Chase for the Championship.

Gordon is third in the most points earned this season on short tracks with 472 and he's finished no lower than fifth in the past two Bristol races. Among the active drivers, he is tied with Kurt Busch for the most victories at the track with five, he has the most lead-lap finishes (22), has led the most laps with 2,438 and has the best average start with 5.485. However, one can't help but wonder if Gordon's nagging back problem won't have an adverse effect on his performance due to the G forces that come into play at the high-speed bullring.

Rounding out the top five in short-track performances this year is veteran Mark Martin. The 50-year-old Arkansas native has produced 456 points in three short-track races this year. That's just 10 fewer than the 31-year-old Newman. Martin's worst short-track finish this year has been seventh at Martinsville. He produced a fifth at Richmond and a sixth at Bristol. Examining the past four Bristol races doesn't provide a clear picture of Martin's performance at the track because he drove a limited schedule in 2007 and 2008, competing in 24 of each season's 36 races. That included bypassing the Bristol races both years.

Naturally, there are always specific drivers one should never discount from the Bristol victory equation. They include the Richard Childress Racing contingent of Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer, as well as Jimmie Johnson, Edwards, standings leader Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kurt Busch and Marcos Ambrose. Seven of those drivers round out the top 12 in the number of points earned on the circuit's short tracks this season. Overall, the three RCR drivers have led 791 laps. Burton won the spring Bristol race in 2008 and has led 320 laps while producing 13 top-10s. Harvick also has been victorious at Bristol, but not in the past four races. However, he has led 390 laps, completed 98.1 percent of his laps and produced 11 top-10s in 17 starts. It's definitely a track where he could end his winless streak.

Big bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up)

I'm seeing Denny Hamlin (23.2) having a breakthrough at Bristol and his cap price is a little more friendly than Jeff Gordon (24.1) and Tony Stewart (25.6), whom I can see getting top-5s. … I also like Ryan Newman (22.0) a lot in this group. … Carl Edwards (22.9), Kurt Busch (22.6) and Juan Pablo Montoya (22.3) should also get some thought, but feel more like top-10 material to me, as does Kasey Kahne (22.2).

Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 22.0)

You can find at least two of the guys in this category who have a shot to win or finish top-5. He really burned a lot of folks when he ran out gas at Michigan, but Mark Martin (21.4) should be very tough Saturday night. … I also think Kyle Busch (21.3) makes a very attractive pick this week for what he's done at Bristol and other short tracks this season. … Jeff Burton (19.6) has a shot to deliver a top-10 with a price tag that could potentially allow you to open your cap space.

Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 18.0)

Among the sleepers who have a chance at top-10s or top-15s at Bristol are Kevin Harvick (17.9), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (17.8), Martin Truex Jr. (17.9), Jamie McMurray (17.7) and A.J. Allmendinger (17.4). … A potential top-20 is David Stremme.

Debit … not credit

On top, I'm probably going to stay away from Jimmie Johnson (24.0). Yes, he did finish third at Bristol in early spring but his previous four race finishes are 16th, 21st,18th and 33rd. … In the "Serious Coin" category I was high on Brian Vickers (21.7) a week ago, but short tracks have been a struggle for this team. … I'll also probably stay away from Joey Logano (18.6) because he looked a little shaky when he ran his first Bristol race earlier this year and pricewise is a "tweener" with better picks a little above and below him. … Among the "budget boys," Elliott Sadler (17.0) is a former Bristol winner, but his best finish in the past six races is 20th and his average finish over that span is 27.6.

Guru Garrow's gang

My preliminary team is Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and David Stremme. I'm not super in love with this lineup and should be changing it after Sunday morning's crew chief chat.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.